冲上云霄2

US Navy destroyer in Red Sea shoots down cruise missiles potentially headed toward Israel: Pentagon_我的网站

火柴人

一 | 8月24日，国际政坛召开了一场具有重要象征意义的援乌“志愿联盟”峰会，参与国增至37个，其中日本的出席显得尤为特别。这不仅让人看到了东京在亚太区域的角色，也反映出高市早苗首相在这一问题上的坚决态度。 The USS Carney, a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer in the northern Red Sea, on Thursday shot down multiple missiles and drones launched by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen that the Pentagon said were potentially headed toward targets in Israel.It is the first time in recent memory that a U.S. Navy ship in the Middle East has engaged missiles and drones that were not directly aimed at the vessel.It's also the first U.S. military action taken to defend Israel in the current crisis and with the U.S. and other countries trying to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the possibility that an Iranian-backed proxy group fired missiles and drones at Israel is sure to increase growing regional tensions.The ship was in the northern Red Sea on Thursday evening local time when it intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and several drones, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a press briefing. U.S. officials told ABC News that the Carney had brought down eight drones launched by the Houthis.The preliminary U.S. assessment was that the USS Carney was not the target of any of the Houthi missiles or drones, according to multiple U.S. officials."We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea potentially to targets in Israel," said Ryder who added that information about the engagements was still being processed.It’s unclear from where the Houthi militia's missiles were fired but they were headed in a northerly direction, an official said.The Houthis are an Iranian-backed Shiite movement that has seized control over much of northern Yemen and has been at war with recent years while Yemen has been at war with a Saudi-led coalition since 2015.As part of that conflict, the Houthis have launched missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia, but it appears that the missiles intercepted on Thursday were not aimed at targets inside Saudi Arabia.Last week, Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi was quoted as saying that if the U.S. directly intervened in the Gaza conflict his group would respond by firing drones and missiles, and take other military options."There are red lines when it comes to Gaza," he said.Thursday's incident occurred during the early evening hours (local time) when the missiles and drones were detected moving northward above the waters of the Red Sea.The missiles fired by the Houthis were engaged by SM2 missiles carried aboard the USS Carney, a U.S. official told ABC News. No information was released about what weapons platform aboard the Carney brought down the 8 drones.Brig. Gen. Ryder told reporters that the intercepts had taken place over water and not land. No sailors aboard the ship were harmed according to a U.S. official.The United States has boosted its military presence in the region since the start of the Israel-Hamas war nearly two weeks ago.The USS Carney is part of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group that was deployed to the eastern Mediterranean to deter Iran and Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas war. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently extended the deployment of the Ford strike group so it can remain in the eastern Mediterranean and had ordered the deployment of additional fighter aircraft to U.S. airbases in the region.To increase U.S. deterrence of an expansion in the conflict the Ford will soon be joined in the eastern Mediterranean by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group that left Norfolk, Virginia on Saturday and could arrive in the region over the next 7 to 10 days."By posturing these U.S. naval assets and advanced fighter aircraft in the region, we aim to send a strong message intended to deter a wider conflict to bolster regional stability and of course to make it clear that we will protect and defend our national security interests," Ryder told reporters Thursday.The USS Carney had just transited into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal on Wednesday which is why the destroyer was still located in the northern stretch of that body of water that borders, Egypt, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.The missile shot down by the USS Carney will bolster the deterrence in the region and demonstrate that the show of force is serious stuff, a senior U.S. official told ABC News.The risk to U.S. forces and U.S. interests in the region has increased particularly in the wake of a deadly explosion at a hospital in Gaza earlier this week that inflamed regional tensions.On Wednesday, three drones were shot down by U.S. military forces as they neared bases in western and northern Iraq, another drone was shot down near U.S. forces in eastern Syria on Thursday.A U.S. contractor sheltering in place at one of the bases in Iraq died of a cardiac arrest in one of the incidents.Al Asad airbase in western Iraq experienced indirect fire on Thursday according to a U.S. official.The Carney's shootdown of Houthi missiles opens up the possibility that the U.S. Navy may have to position more ships in the Red Sea if the U.S. commits to protecting Israel from a southern attack said Steve Ganyard, an ABC News contributor and a former Pentagon official."The larger concern is if Iran now considers U.S. ships fair game," said Ganyard. "Because if the Houthis shoot at a U.S. ship there will be little doubt that it would have been at Tehran’s direction.""That said, there is nothing to suggest, no known reason to believe that Iran wants a fight with the U.S. and/or Israel," said Ganyard. "So, hopefully things calm down."ABC News' Martha Raddatz contributed to this report.。然而，这一变化无疑是日本外交政策的一次重大转变，涉及到对俄关系和地区安全的深远影响。高市在峰会中毫不掩饰地向乌克兰总统泽连斯基致以敬意，甚至将俄罗斯称为“侵略者”，这在日本历任首相的涉俄表态中是前所未有的。在过去，日本的乌克兰政策一直保持着一条清晰的红线，只提供人道主义援助，而不直接卷入军事冲突。然而，现如今，这条线随着高市的言辞与行动已经模糊不清，表明日本正试图在援助与参战之间游走。

二 | 这一战略调整的背后，隐含着两方面的考量。一方面，高市早苗作为新任首相，急需通过强化对外政策来巩固自己的政治地位；另一方面，面对美国日益增长的压力，日本不得不在国际援助的框架内寻求更多的角色。

三 | 美方长期以来的呼吁，要求盟国分担更多军费与物资支持，加剧了东京对乌政策的调整。而高市的举动似乎是在回应这一要求，同时也在寻求国内右翼势力的支持。然而，这种政策转变并非没有风险。日本战后成立的宪法第九条对武力使用有着明确限制，这一和平条款曾是约束政府行为的重要法律基础。高市尝试通过行政决议的方式调整防卫装备转移政策，将乌克兰列入适用例外条款，这意味着她正在不断试探法律界限。一旦这一程序完成，未来的任何一届政府都可能寻求以类似的方式绕过立法审查，进一步削弱和平条款的实际约束力。当然，日本在国内对这一政策的反应并不统一。右翼势力对于对俄强硬态度表示支持，认为这是国家正常化的机会。

四 | 然而，普遍民众的态度却更显复杂。虽然他们对乌克兰的困境表示同情，但是否愿意承受与俄罗斯对抗的风险，则还需要进一步观察。尤其是考虑到，一旦俄罗斯启动反制措施，普通百姓将最直接地感受到其影响，这无疑对高市政权构成威胁。

五 | 从地缘政治的角度来看，高市面临的最大难题就是如何平衡对乌支持与自身安全问题。日本的战略安全关注主要集中在台海及半岛局势，而不是东欧的乌克兰。如果日本将有限的军事资源投入到乌克兰，势必会削弱其在亚太地区的防御能力，这是一个不容忽视的现实。此外，虽然欧洲国家欢迎日本在乌克兰事务上分担压力，但没有任何保证能够回馈日本安全保障。更为严峻的是，当前情况下日籍前自卫队员的出现被许多人视若无物。然而，这实际上是高市政策的一部分，政府对这种现象的默许创造了一种危险的灰色地带。日本如果不能有效监管，参战的个人可能变成一种不可控的力量，破坏国家的内部稳定。在这场国际博弈中，高市早苗本希望通过对俄强硬来提升自己在国内的政治能见度，但是她却忽略了一个关键点：面对核大国的持续敌意，单靠强硬姿态并不足以确保国安。日本并不具备单独面对俄罗斯威胁的能力。即使在战斗力上有所增强，但其在应对复杂局势时的脆弱性依然显而易见。乌克兰总理邀请高市访问显示出基辅对日本政策的期待，这是一招深思熟虑的棋子。日本的最高领导人在基辅现身，意味着对对乌政策的官方背书，将反对声音置于尴尬境地。但是，从国利益出发，赴乌交流并没有带来切实的收益，反而可能加剧日本与俄罗斯间的敌对情绪。高市的强硬立场或许能在短期内获得一定的声望与认同，但长远来看，她的政策基于错位的判断。日本并不能在没有付出直接代价的前提下参与全局性的对抗。事实上，俄罗斯在远东的军事存在虽然并未形成直接威胁，但其隐秘的报复机制同样能影响日本的国家安全与稳定。高市早苗的对俄政策尽管在形式上得到了其他国家的口头支持，但实际上日本在地缘政治中的处境比之前更加艰难。对抗的成本会随着时间的推移而显现，具体表现为能源供应、渔业谈判等方面的损失。当真正的后果浮出水面时，很可能高市面临的不仅是来自国内的压力，还有外部力量的重重围困。